What can we expect from Brighton’s Joao Pedro?

Masters of the transfer market, Brighton and Hove Albion have already confirmed a high-profile departure and purchase in preparation for their first-ever European campaign.

Before Alexis Mac Allister completed his move to Liverpool, it was announced in early May that Watford forward Joao Pedro would arrive in July for a club-record £30m fee.

So how soon can the 21-year-old Brazilian break into the Seagulls’ first XI and what impact will he have in FPL?

We’ll attempt to answer those questions below.

THE HISTORY

Pedro has risen through Fluminense’s youth ranks but Watford signed the wonderkid before he’d even made his senior debut for the Rio-based side.

This maiden appearance took place soon after in March 2019, with the-then 17-year-old forward racking up ten goals in all competitions ahead of January 2020’s Vicarage Road switch.

Pedro already has top-flight experience, with most of his appearances coming in 2021/22.

There may have only been 15 starts and three goals in that campaign but Newcastle United had already seen enough potential to seemingly secure a transfer last summer. Twitter’s transfer expert Fabrizio Romano used his “here we go” confirmation line, only to see the deal collapse shortly after the Magpies captured Alexander Isak.

Soon after, he signed a new Watford contract and was well on the way to 11 goals in the English second tier. This tally exceeded his 8.80 expected goals (xG) for the season.

PLAYING STYLE

Looking at his WhoScored profile, Joao Pedro is a brilliant dribbler of the ball who isn’t afraid to help his teammates defensively.

Indeed, no player in the 2022/23 Championship had more successful dribbles than his 116. Averaging 3.7 per 90, only Allan Saint-Maximin bettered this rate amongst semi-regular starters in the Premier League.

As for identifying the best way to use the Brazilian, his former Watford boss Roy Hodgson believes it’s to deploy him as the centre-forward near two other attackers, allowing him to sometimes drop deeper and use his dribbling skills to full effect.

“He’s best centrally in a trident with two forwards prepared to make runs behind defenders. Then he can drop and be a deep-lying target player. He’s very skilful; he’s got a very good technique; he’s got good pace; and is able to run past people with the ball.” – Roy Hodgson

A curious 74-year-old Hodgson investigated this further by providing a beautiful assist in training, which quickly went viral.

WHERE JOAO PEDRO FITS IN AT BRIGHTON

Yet there’s a positional dexterity to Joao Pedro, with the below graphic showing where he’s been used by Watford over the last two seasons: mostly a central forward but sometimes out wide on the left.

Up front at the Amex, there’s already Evan Ferguson, Danny Welbeck and Deniz Undav, whilst Kaoru Mitoma is the left-sided attacking midfielder.

But based on their astute captures in recent years, you can be sure Brighton have researched this target thoroughly and have a long-term plan in mind. Perhaps they see Mitoma’s similarly-brilliant dribbling attributes – ranking first for take-ons (112) and successful ones (48) since Gameweek 17 – in Pedro and intend for the Brazilian to initially provide competition, before eventually taking over the role once Mitoma inevitably departs.

“Joao has been a long-term target of ours, and he has also attracted a lot of interest from across Europe. He’s a brilliant young talent, technically very good, quick and with an eye for goal. He will complement our existing forward line very well.” – Technical Director David Weir

Or maybe he’s intended to be the second, more-withdrawn frontman that is able to run past players as Hodgson suggested. Now that Mac Allister has departed, it’s a role to share with Julio Enciso and Adam Lallana.

IS JOAO PEDRO WORTH BUYING IN FPL?

There’s too much uncertainty to recommend him right now, as his rotation risk is paired with Brighton’s fixtures not being announced until Thursday 15 June – not that the Seagulls will fear any opponent, having just done the double over Man United and Chelsea alongside 3-0 wins over Liverpool and Arsenal.

Pre-season will give more clues towards how Roberto De Zerbi intends to use this versatile attacker, as will the club’s remaining transfer activity.

Joao Pedro’s price point could be around the £5.5m to £6.0m area, which will entice should he regularly start.

Considering the plethora of Brighton forwards, Pedro’s modest goal contributions to date and the frustration of De Zerbi’s late-season rotations that will be exacerbated by Europa League football, he’s unlikely to have much initial appeal.